What’s staying the same?

Every day there seems to be new updates around generative AI and other new technologies. I sometimes feel so far behind that I don't know how I'm ever going to catch up (I still can't tell whether crypto is a good thing or bad thing).

It's both exciting, but also difficult to process.

With the pace of change happening so quickly, I've grounded myself with this quote from Jeff Bezos :

“I very frequently get the question: 'What's going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it's a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What's not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two...When you have something that you know is true, even over the long term, you can afford to put a lot of energy into it.”

One way to figure out what is likely not going to change is to read older books and see which ideas still apply today. Marcus Aurelius' Meditations is over 2000 years old. Plato's Republic is even older. A more recent book on this topic is Same as Ever by Morgan Housel. Here is a list of things that are likely not going to change over the next decade (uncited quotes are from Housel's book):

1. Human Nature is Consistent:
   • People react similarly to greed, fear, risk, and the need to belong, so expect these patterns despite how unpredictable the future might be. People often want autonomy and
2. Continuous Learning is a Critical Skill:
   • The world is full of unknowns; always be ready to learn ("risk is what we don't see")
3. Our Expectations Impact Our Happiness:
   • Happiness is in your control because your expectations are within your control -  stay off social media so you don't compare your day-to-day self with everyone else's highlights
4. Source of Strength is Often Source of Weakness:
   • "people who are abnormally good at one thing tend to be abnormally bad at something else" so make sure you are ready for that when you're aspiring to be exceptional
5. Conviction > Accuracy:
   • People prefer certainty over accuracy, so be cautious of persuasive stories; not everything that sounds convincing is true.
6. Stories are Powerful:
   • "Valuation of every company is simply a number from today multiplied by a story about tomorrow” The most persuasive stories are about what you want to believe is true, or are an extension of what you've experienced firsthand.
   • Good question to ask yourself: "Who has the right answer, but I ignore because they're inarticulate? And what do I believe is true but is actually just good marketing?"
7. The World is Messy and Often Illogical:
   • For example, value is what people want, not what is most useful (as we all know from the time being spent watching unboxing videos). "The ones who thrive long term are those who understand the real world is a never-ending chain of absurdity, confusion, messy relationships, and imperfect people."
8. Your Edge Comes from Being Paranoid:
   • Success can lead to complacency; Those who are a bit paranoid constantly work hard to stay ahead of their competition. If being paranoid is stressful for you, you can also decide to be happy with what you have.
9. Life Doesn't Bother You. You Bother Yourself. 
   • When something happens that causes you frustration, note that the source of that frustration is coming from within. To not be bothered by the uncontrollable events of life, work on yourself and explore why you're being bothered. In the words of Eleanor Roosevelt, "No one can make you feel inferior without your consent."
10. Quality Over Quantity:
    • More isn't always better; find the right size for your ideas, relationships, and pursuits.
11. Relationships Really Matter:
    • Focus on cultivating close relationships with friends and family. This is one of the key insights from thousands of interviews with those who have lived a full life and a 75-year old longitudinal study at Harvard (TED talk).
12. Compounding is Powerful:
    • Small, consistent efforts can lead to extraordinary results over time.
13. Planning Like a Pessimist, Dreaming Like an Optimist:
    • Be prepared for setbacks but believe in a better future.
14. Progress is Slow; Decline is Fast:
    • When I was an equities trader, the market often rose slowly over many years, but crashes can happen in a matter of weeks and months. Interestingly, this dynamic applies to careers, organizations, relationships, reputations, etc. because good things are "complex to make and simple to break."
15. "Excellence is often just a capacity for taking pains." (Isadore Sharp, CEO of Four Seasons):
    • Worthy pursuits are challenging; embrace the hard work and pain that comes with doing hard things.
16. People are Slow to Embrace New Technology:
    • Stay open to new tech; what seems unfamiliar today could be indispensable tomorrow.
    • Typical thought path for many people:
      • "I've never heard of it.
      • I've heard of it but don't understand it.
      • I understand it, but I don't see how it's useful.
      • I see how it could be fun for rich people, but not me.
      • I use it, but it's just a toy.
      • It's becoming more useful for me.
      • I use it all the time.
      • I could not imagine life without it.
      • Seriously, people lived without it?
      • It's too powerful and needs to be regulated."
17. Grass Isn't Always Greener:
    • What looks appealing may be tougher and less enjoyable than it seems.
18. Incentives Drive Behavior: 
    • People follow incentives more than advice; people can rationalize most behaviors if they are consciously or unconsciously motivated to do so. "Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome." (Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway)
19. Ideas that are Easier Said Than Done:
    • "I'm in it for the long run." - just by looking at most people's actions, it's clear that we often optimize for the short-term
    • "Less is more." - "Simplicity is a great virtue but it requires hard work to achieve it and education to appreciate it. And to make matters worse: complexity sells better." (Edsger Dijkstra, Dutch Computer Scientist)
    • "Time is money." - we are often more prudent with their money than their time
    • "Treat others like you would like to be treated." - we are often not thinking about how we treat other people
    • "Step into someone's shoes." - people with different experiences think differently; many disagreements arise from miscommunication or people optimizing for different goals.
    • "Do the right thing." - who decides what the "right" thing is?
20. We Like Shortcuts:
    • We often take mental shortcuts in thinking and decision-making.

How about your list? What do you see as likely staying the same over the next 20-30 years? How might you use these insights to inform how you'll invest your energy and time?

"A mind that is stretched by new experience can never go back to its old dimensions"

- Oliver Wendell Holmes, Former Supreme Court Justice